Peri-midFormer: Periodic Pyramid Transformer for Time Series Analysis

Time series analysis finds wide applications in fields such as weather forecasting, anomaly detection, and behavior recognition. Previous methods attempted to model temporal variations directly using 1D time series. However, this has been quite challenging due to the discrete nature of data points in time series and the complexity of periodic variation. In terms of periodicity, taking weather and traffic data as an example, there are multi-periodic variations such as yearly, monthly, weekly, and daily, etc. In order to break through the limitations of the previous methods, we decouple the implied complex periodic variations into inclusion and overlap relationships among different level periodic components based on the observation of the multi-periodicity therein and its inclusion relationships. This explicitly represents the naturally occurring pyramid-like properties in time series, where the top level is the original time series and lower levels consist of periodic components with gradually shorter periods, which we call the periodic pyramid. To further extract complex temporal variations, we introduce self-attention mechanism into the periodic pyramid, capturing complex periodic relationships by computing attention between periodic components based on their inclusion, overlap, and adjacency relationships. Our proposed Peri-midFormer demonstrates outstanding performance in five mainstream time series analysis tasks, including short- and long-term forecasting, imputation, classification, and anomaly detection.

Towards Resource-Efficient Federated Learning in Industrial IoT for Multivariate Time Series Analysis

Anomaly and missing data constitute a thorny problem in industrial applications. In recent years, deep learning enabled anomaly detection has emerged as a critical direction, however the improved detection accuracy is achieved with the utilization of large neural networks, increasing their storage and computational cost. Moreover, the data collected in edge devices contain user privacy, introducing challenges that can be successfully addressed by the privacy-preserving distributed paradigm, known as federated learning (FL). This framework allows edge devices to train and exchange models increasing also the communication cost. Thus, to deal with the increased communication, processing and storage challenges of the FL based deep anomaly detection NN pruning is expected to have significant benefits towards reducing the processing, storage and communication complexity. With this focus, a novel compression-based optimization problem is proposed at the server-side of a FL paradigm that fusses the received local models broadcast and performs pruning generating a more compressed model. Experiments in the context of anomaly detection and missing value imputation demonstrate that the proposed FL scenario along with the proposed compressed-based method are able to achieve high compression rates (more than $99.7\%$) with negligible performance losses (less than $1.18\%$ ) as compared to the centralized solutions.

From Medprompt to o1: Exploration of Run-Time Strategies for Medical Challenge Problems and Beyond

Run-time steering strategies like Medprompt are valuable for guiding large language models (LLMs) to top performance on challenging tasks. Medprompt demonstrates that a general LLM can be focused to deliver state-of-the-art performance on specialized domains like medicine by using a prompt to elicit a run-time strategy involving chain of thought reasoning and ensembling. OpenAI's o1-preview model represents a new paradigm, where a model is designed to do run-time reasoning before generating final responses. We seek to understand the behavior of o1-preview on a diverse set of medical challenge problem benchmarks. Following on the Medprompt study with GPT-4, we systematically evaluate the o1-preview model across various medical benchmarks. Notably, even without prompting techniques, o1-preview largely outperforms the GPT-4 series with Medprompt. We further systematically study the efficacy of classic prompt engineering strategies, as represented by Medprompt, within the new paradigm of reasoning models. We found that few-shot prompting hinders o1's performance, suggesting that in-context learning may no longer be an effective steering approach for reasoning-native models. While ensembling remains viable, it is resource-intensive and requires careful cost-performance optimization. Our cost and accuracy analysis across run-time strategies reveals a Pareto frontier, with GPT-4o representing a more affordable option and o1-preview achieving state-of-the-art performance at higher cost. Although o1-preview offers top performance, GPT-4o with steering strategies like Medprompt retains value in specific contexts. Moreover, we note that the o1-preview model has reached near-saturation on many existing medical benchmarks, underscoring the need for new, challenging benchmarks. We close with reflections on general directions for inference-time computation with LLMs.

LLM-based Framework for Bearing Fault Diagnosis

Accurately diagnosing bearing faults is crucial for maintaining the efficient operation of rotating machinery. However, traditional diagnosis methods face challenges due to the diversification of application environments, including cross-condition adaptability, small-sample learning difficulties, and cross-dataset generalization. These challenges have hindered the effectiveness and limited the application of existing approaches. Large language models (LLMs) offer new possibilities for improving the generalization of diagnosis models. However, the integration of LLMs with traditional diagnosis techniques for optimal generalization remains underexplored. This paper proposed an LLM-based bearing fault diagnosis framework to tackle these challenges. First, a signal feature quantification method was put forward to address the issue of extracting semantic information from vibration data, which integrated time and frequency domain feature extraction based on a statistical analysis framework. This method textualized time-series data, aiming to efficiently learn cross-condition and small-sample common features through concise feature selection. Fine-tuning methods based on LoRA and QLoRA were employed to enhance the generalization capability of LLMs in analyzing vibration data features. In addition, the two innovations (textualizing vibration features and fine-tuning pre-trained models) were validated by single-dataset cross-condition and cross-dataset transfer experiment with complete and limited data. The results demonstrated the ability of the proposed framework to perform three types of generalization tasks simultaneously. Trained cross-dataset models got approximately a 10% improvement in accuracy, proving the adaptability of LLMs to input patterns. Ultimately, the results effectively enhance the generalization capability and fill the research gap in using LLMs for bearing fault diagnosis.

Multi-Scale Temporal Analysis for Failure Prediction in Energy Systems

Many existing models struggle to predict nonlinear behavior during extreme weather conditions. This study proposes a multi-scale temporal analysis for failure prediction in energy systems using PMU data. The model integrates multi-scale analysis with machine learning to capture both short-term and long-term behavior. PMU data lacks labeled states despite logged failure records, making it difficult to distinguish between normal and disturbance conditions. We address this through: (1) Extracting domain features from PMU time series data; (2) Applying multi-scale windows (30s, 60s, 180s) for pattern detection; (3) Using Recursive Feature Elimination to identify key features; (4) Training multiple machine learning models. Key contributions: Identifying significant features across multi-scale windows; Demonstrating LightGBM's superior performance (0.896 precision); Showing multi-scale analysis outperforms single-window models (0.841). Our work focuses on weather-related failures, with plans to extend to equipment failure and lightning events.

Analyzing Poverty through Intra-Annual Time-Series: A Wavelet Transform Approach

Reducing global poverty is a key objective of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Achieving this requires high-frequency, granular data to capture neighborhood-level changes, particularly in data scarce regions such as low- and middle-income countries. To fill in the data gaps, recent computer vision methods combining machine learning (ML) with earth observation (EO) data to improve poverty estimation. However, while much progress have been made, they often omit intra-annual variations, which are crucial for estimating poverty in agriculturally dependent countries. We explored the impact of integrating intra-annual NDVI information with annual multi-spectral data on model accuracy. To evaluate our method, we created a simulated dataset using Landsat imagery and nighttime light data to evaluate EO-ML methods that use intra-annual EO data. Additionally, we evaluated our method against the Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) dataset across Africa. Our results indicate that integrating specific NDVI-derived features with multi-spectral data provides valuable insights for poverty analysis, emphasizing the importance of retaining intra-annual information.

Enhancing Glucose Level Prediction of ICU Patients through Irregular Time-Series Analysis and Integrated Representation

Accurately predicting blood glucose (BG) levels of ICU patients is critical, as both hypoglycemia (BG < 70 mg/dL) and hyperglycemia (BG > 180 mg/dL) are associated with increased morbidity and mortality. We develop the Multi-source Irregular Time-Series Transformer (MITST), a novel machine learning-based model to forecast the next BG level, classifying it into hypoglycemia, hyperglycemia, or euglycemia (70-180 mg/dL). The irregularity and complexity of Electronic Health Record (EHR) data, spanning multiple heterogeneous clinical sources like lab results, medications, and vital signs, pose significant challenges for prediction tasks. MITST addresses these using hierarchical Transformer architectures, which include a feature-level, a timestamp-level, and a source-level Transformer. This design captures fine-grained temporal dynamics and allows learning-based data integration instead of traditional predefined aggregation. In a large-scale evaluation using the eICU database (200,859 ICU stays across 208 hospitals), MITST achieves an average improvement of 1.7% (p < 0.001) in AUROC and 1.8% (p < 0.001) in AUPRC over a state-of-the-art baseline. For hypoglycemia, MITST achieves an AUROC of 0.915 and an AUPRC of 0.247, both significantly higher than the baseline's AUROC of 0.862 and AUPRC of 0.208 (p < 0.001). The flexible architecture of MITST allows seamless integration of new data sources without retraining the entire model, enhancing its adaptability in clinical decision support. Although this study focuses on predicting BG levels, MITST can easily be extended to other critical event prediction tasks in ICU settings, offering a robust solution for analyzing complex, multi-source, irregular time-series data.

See it, Think it, Sorted: Large Multimodal Models are Few-shot Time Series Anomaly Analyzers

Time series anomaly detection (TSAD) is becoming increasingly vital due to the rapid growth of time series data across various sectors. Anomalies in web service data, for example, can signal critical incidents such as system failures or server malfunctions, necessitating timely detection and response. However, most existing TSAD methodologies rely heavily on manual feature engineering or require extensive labeled training data, while also offering limited interpretability. To address these challenges, we introduce a pioneering framework called the Time Series Anomaly Multimodal Analyzer (TAMA), which leverages the power of Large Multimodal Models (LMMs) to enhance both the detection and interpretation of anomalies in time series data. By converting time series into visual formats that LMMs can efficiently process, TAMA leverages few-shot in-context learning capabilities to reduce dependence on extensive labeled datasets. Our methodology is validated through rigorous experimentation on multiple real-world datasets, where TAMA consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods in TSAD tasks. Additionally, TAMA provides rich, natural language-based semantic analysis, offering deeper insights into the nature of detected anomalies. Furthermore, we contribute one of the first open-source datasets that includes anomaly detection labels, anomaly type labels, and contextual description, facilitating broader exploration and advancement within this critical field. Ultimately, TAMA not only excels in anomaly detection but also provides a comprehensive approach for understanding the underlying causes of anomalies, pushing TSAD forward through innovative methodologies and insights.

Abstracted Shapes as Tokens -- A Generalizable and Interpretable Model for Time-series Classification

In time-series analysis, many recent works seek to provide a unified view and representation for time-series across multiple domains, leading to the development of foundation models for time-series data. Despite diverse modeling techniques, existing models are black boxes and fail to provide insights and explanations about their representations. In this paper, we present VQShape, a pre-trained, generalizable, and interpretable model for time-series representation learning and classification. By introducing a novel representation for time-series data, we forge a connection between the latent space of VQShape and shape-level features. Using vector quantization, we show that time-series from different domains can be described using a unified set of low-dimensional codes, where each code can be represented as an abstracted shape in the time domain. On classification tasks, we show that the representations of VQShape can be utilized to build interpretable classifiers, achieving comparable performance to specialist models. Additionally, in zero-shot learning, VQShape and its codebook can generalize to previously unseen datasets and domains that are not included in the pre-training process. The code and pre-trained weights are available at https://github.com/YunshiWen/VQShape.

Higher-order Cross-structural Embedding Model for Time Series Analysis

Time series analysis has gained significant attention due to its critical applications in diverse fields such as healthcare, finance, and sensor networks. The complexity and non-stationarity of time series make it challenging to capture the interaction patterns across different timestamps. Current approaches struggle to model higher-order interactions within time series, and focus on learning temporal or spatial dependencies separately, which limits performance in downstream tasks. To address these gaps, we propose Higher-order Cross-structural Embedding Model for Time Series (High-TS), a novel framework that jointly models both temporal and spatial perspectives by combining multiscale Transformer with Topological Deep Learning (TDL). Meanwhile, High-TS utilizes contrastive learning to integrate these two structures for generating robust and discriminative representations. Extensive experiments show that High-TS outperforms state-of-the-art methods in various time series tasks and demonstrate the importance of higher-order cross-structural information in improving model performance.